An Abuja-based policy think tank, Agora Policy, said Nigeria’s 2026 wet season has made coastal resilience an immediate policy priority, with flooding and rain-triggered landslides damaging homes, businesses and infrastructure and displacing households in Calabar, Lagos, Akwa Ibom and parts of Rivers State.
The policy think-tank said these incidents expose a recurring weakness: emergency response is not consistently linked to the planning, maintenance and household support needed to reduce the next disaster’s impact.
The think-tank disclosed this in its report titled “Nigeria Needs a Coastal Resilience Strategy Not Just Seasonal Flood Response” released on Monday.
“Beyond Nigeria, the catastrophic floods that struck northern Nepal in late August claimed more than a thousand lives.
“The lesson is urgency, not equivalence: water-related hazards can rapidly result in failures of housing, transport, health systems and livelihoods, and Nigeria needs to act before recurring seasonal emergencies harden into structural losses,” Agora Policy said.
It explained that Nigeria has a coastal challenge, which is often treated as a seasonal flooding problem.
“But it is much bigger than that. The water may arrive during the rainy season, but the damage is produced by a much larger system: rising seas, sinking land in parts of Lagos, intense rainfall, blocked drainages, eroding shorelines, polluted waterways, shrinking wetlands, weak building control, and households that have little capacity to absorb repeated losses.
“That distinction changes the policy response. A government focused mainly on flooding will prioritise evacuation, relief, drain clearance and protective structures.
“A government treating coastal risk as a development challenge will also ask whether people can keep their jobs, whether farms and fisheries can recover, whether schools and clinics remain open, and whether displaced households can secure safe housing and essential services,” the report said.
Agora Policy said climate change is already a development issue for Nigeria, not a distant environmental concern, noting that the coastal belt—stretching from the South West to the South South—makes that argument especially concrete.
“Nigeria’s nine coastal states (Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Edo, Lagos, Ogun, Ondo and Rivers) contain major cities, ports, oil and gas infrastructure, farms, fisheries, mangrove forests, tourism assets and some of the country’s most densely settled communities. When coastal risk is poorly managed, the cost is felt far beyond the shoreline,” it said.
Actions for a national strategy
Nigeria already has climate commitments, meteorological and hydrological agencies, emergency-management institutions and channels for accessing climate and development finance.
The priority, Agora Policy says, is to organise delivery around a small number of measurable actions, with clear responsibility for implementation and maintenance.
The policy think tank recommended that the Federal Ministry of Environment should work with the Federal Ministry of Water Resources and Sanitation, the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet), the Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency (NIHSA), the National Council on Climate Change, coastal states and universities to make existing data usable across agencies.
“A common system should track rainfall, water levels, shoreline change, subsidence, drainage condition, ecosystem health, exposed people and facilities, livelihood losses, displacement and adaptation spending.
“An annual coastal risk and resilience account should inform state and local budgets. This should be a shared information function with agreed custodians and publication standards, rather than a new bureaucracy.”
It stated that state and local authorities should manage drains, retention ponds, pumps, outfalls, wetlands and coastal protection structures as parts of an integrated system.
“Project selection should follow local flood pathways, risk assessments and long-term maintenance needs. Every major project should have a responsible operator, an asset register, a funded maintenance plan and public performance indicators. Designs should also assess whether protection in one location could worsen flooding or erosion elsewhere,” it said.
The policy think tank said state environmental agencies and their partners should finance restoration and maintenance with the same discipline applied to drainage and roads.
It added that the success should be measured by restored tidal flows, seedling survival, reduced pollution, shoreline stability and benefits to fisheries and household incomes, not just hectares planted.
“Where oil pollution drives ecosystem loss, restoration and pollution control must be planned together, with affected communities involved in design and monitoring.
“State emergency agencies and local authorities should translate NiMet and NIHSA forecasts into neighbourhood-level warnings with clear evacuation triggers. Before each wet season, they should test communication chains, inspect shelters and routes, identify households needing assistance and pre-position essential supplies.
“Community groups, market associations, transport unions, schools, clinics, women’s groups and fishing associations should help deliver and test the warnings. Performance should be judged by whether people can act safely, not simply by whether an advisory was issued,” it stated.
Agora Policy said emergency-management, social-protection and livelihood agencies should coordinate support beyond food parcels and temporary shelter.
“Households also lose crops, fishing equipment, stock, tools, premises and working capital. Faster arrangements are needed for cash before anticipated shocks, agricultural inputs, fisheries support, small-business recovery and home repair. Insurance may complement these measures where it is affordable and suitable.
“Social registries should be linked to exposure information with privacy safeguards and a route for eligible households missing from the registers. The objective is to prevent a flood from becoming a prolonged debt and poverty trap. Planning and housing authorities should identify likely receiving areas and assess safe land, rental pressures, school and clinic capacity, transport and jobs.
“Planned relocation should be a last resort, with meaningful participation, secure tenure, compensation, livelihood restoration and accessible grievance mechanisms. Support should extend to receiving communities and to people who cannot afford to leave exposed areas,” the think tank said.
It said federal and state governments should agree on costed implementation programmes that link financing to credible baselines, clear responsibilities, maintenance arrangements, safeguards and independently verified results.
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“National standards can be common while the mix of drainage, ecosystem, livelihood and planning measures varies by state. Co-financing requirements should reflect fiscal capacity, with preparation support for states that lack it, so that the most vulnerable places are not excluded because they are least able to develop projects. Coastal resilience should be financed as a programme for jobs, food security, health and urban productivity,” it added.
Agora Policy said the country’s coastal risks cannot be managed by waiting for the next flood and improving relief alone.
“Rising seas, subsiding land, intense rainfall, poor drainage, ecosystem loss, pollution and weak development control interact in different ways across the coastal zone. Their consequences include lost income, food insecurity, interrupted schooling and health care, displacement and pressure on receiving communities.
“Nigeria should assess which places can be protected, restore natural buffers, help households recover and plan relocation where remaining is no longer viable. Success will depend on shared information that shapes budgets, maintained infrastructure, recovering ecosystems, effective warnings and restored livelihoods.
“Connecting these functions would make coastal resilience a permanent part of development policy and reduce the human and economic costs of recurring emergencies,” Agora Policy said.
