The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) said Nigeria’s inflation outlook in April 2026 reflects a fragile disinflation process amid mounting global and domestic cost pressures.
On Friday, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said Nigeria’s annual inflation rate rose to 15.69 per cent in April from 15.38 per cent in March 2026.
The statistics office said the April 2026 headline inflation rate showed an increase of 0.31 per cent compared to the March 2026 headline inflation rate.
The NBS said the food inflation rate in April 2026 was 16.06 per cent on a year-on-year basis and stood at 24.68 per cent in the same month of the preceding year (April 2025).
In a statement signed by Muda Yusuf, director of CPPE, the think tank said inflation conditions remain severe from a welfare and business cost perspective.
“The dominant inflation drivers continue to be food, transportation, energy products, healthcare and restaurant services, which together accounted for about 87 per cent of the inflation pressure recorded in April. These are essential expenditure items which absorb the bulk of household income, particularly among low-income Nigerians,” Mr Yusuf said.
The think tank said the current geopolitical tensions involving Iran, Israel and the United States are also intensifying inflationary risks.
He explained that the conflict has triggered renewed volatility in the global oil market, pushing up crude oil prices and transmitting higher energy costs into the domestic economy.
“Rising petrol, diesel and gas prices are fueling transportation, logistics and production costs across sectors, with significant pass-through effects on food prices and overall consumer inflation.”
This, he said, further underscores the structural and supply-side nature of Nigeria’s inflation challenge.
He said monetary tightening alone cannot resolve inflation driven by energy costs, logistics inefficiencies, food supply disruptions and weak infrastructure conditions.
Additionally, he said monetary tightening could worsen financing costs for businesses, weaken investment and further constrain productivity growth.
“The policy priority should therefore shift more decisively towards supply-side interventions. Governments at both federal and state levels should intensify measures to reduce energy costs, improve transportation infrastructure, strengthen food supply systems, enhance trade facilitation and support domestic productivity,” he added.
READ ALSO: CPPE warns against premature value-addition policies, citing risks to Nigeria’s economy
For businesses, he said the operating environment remains extremely challenging.
“Firms should prioritise energy efficiency, dynamic pricing models, consumer segmentation and affordability-driven product strategies, including smaller pack sizes, as consumers become increasingly price-sensitive and discretionary spending weakens,” Mr Yusuf said.
Overall, he said the April inflation numbers suggest that while inflationary momentum may be moderating, the disinflation process remains highly vulnerable to external shocks, especially geopolitical developments in the global energy market.
“Sustained inflation moderation will depend largely on structural reforms and targeted interventions to reduce the cost of food, transportation, and energy within the economy,” he said.
