The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has reported a significant shortfall in actual crude oil supply to domestic refineries in the first quarter of 2026, despite producers offering volumes above the mandated allocation under the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation (DCSO).
Eniola Akinkuotu, the regulator’s head of media and strategic communications, in a statement, on Tuesday said a summary of the monthly allocation shows that 61.9 million barrels of crude oil were allocated to domestic refineries during the quarter.
Mr Akinkuotu said crude producers collectively offered a higher volume of 68.7 million barrels.
However, he said actual supply to local refineries was 28.5 million barrels, translating to a supply conversion rate of 36-46 per cent as of the end of the first quarter (Q1) 2026.
A breakdown of the DCSO month by month reveals that in the month of January, following consultations with stakeholders, including crude oil producers, the NUPRC mandated producers to supply 22.6 million barrels to the local refiners.
Mr Akinkuotu explained that producers exceeded expectations, offering 25.3 million barrels, representing a rise of 11.9 per cent, or an additional 2.7 million barrels, in the month.
However, he said 9.2 million barrels were ultimately supplied to local refiners.
In February, he said the commission, in discharging its DCSO, allocated 20.5 million barrels to local refineries, but producers offered slightly less at 19.8 million barrels, missing the target by 700,000 barrels. Actual supply was down at 9.1 million barrels.
In March, the NUPRC said there was a modest improvement in deliveries, which rose to 10.1 million barrels, up from 9.2 million barrels in January and 9.1 million barrels in February.
During the same period, the commission said DCSO allocations stood at 18.8 million barrels, while producers offered a significantly higher 23.6 million barrels, representing an excess of 4.8 million barrels or 25.5 per cent.
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“The shortfall between volumes offered and actual deliveries has been attributed primarily to pricing gaps between producers and domestic refiners,” the NUPRC said.
The commission emphasised that the current framework operates on a “willing buyer, willing seller” basis, which continues to shape transaction outcomes.
Despite these developments, the commission reaffirmed its commitment to achieving the government’s objective of energy sufficiency.
“Leveraging the framework of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021, the commission aims to sustain recent gains in crude oil production while continuously refining the DCSO methodology to enhance transparency, efficiency, ensuring that local refineries are supplied as committed,” the NUPRC said.
