The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) said the recent decision by the United States to impose a 12.5 per cent tariff on imports from Nigeria is unlikely to have a significant impact on Nigeria’s economy.
The think tank, in a policy brief by its Chief Executive Officer, Muda Yusuf, on Sunday, said the new tariff regime represents a continuation of the Trump administration’s reciprocal tariff policy, albeit under a different legal framework.
“Following the judicial invalidation of the earlier reciprocal tariffs, the current measures appear to have been restructured under Section 301 of the US Trade Act, with allegations relating to forced labour providing the statutory basis for their implementation.
“Although the legal foundation has changed, the underlying policy objective remains essentially the same: protecting US domestic industries, strengthening American manufacturing competitiveness and advancing broader US trade and economic interests.
“From Nigeria’s perspective, however, the economic impact of the tariffs is unlikely to be significant,” Mr Yusuf said.
On Friday, the United States announced a plan to impose a 12.5 per cent tariff on imports from Nigeria.
The US government said the decision is part of a new trade measure targeting countries that have failed to prohibit the importation of goods produced with forced labour.
According to CPPE, Nigeria’s exports to the United States are heavily concentrated in crude oil, liquefied natural gas and other petroleum products, which account for more than 80 per cent of Nigeria’s merchandise exports to the US.
“These products have been exempted from the tariff measures, leaving the bulk of Nigeria’s exports unaffected.”
The think tank said that the United States is not Nigeria’s largest export market.
Citing Nigeria’s first-quarter 2026 merchandise trade statistics, CPPE said, total exports stood at approximately ₦21.6 trillion, of which exports to the United States accounted for only 5.56 per cent.
By comparison, Mr Yusuf said India accounted for 13.09 per cent, France 9.29 per cent, the Netherlands 9.22 per cent, and Spain 7.68 per cent.
He said the United States ranked only the fifth-largest destination for Nigerian exports during the quarter.
“These trade patterns significantly moderate Nigeria’s exposure to the new tariff regime. While some non-oil exporters, particularly in agriculture and manufacturing, may experience reduced competitiveness in the U.S market, the overall impact on Nigeria’s export earnings, foreign exchange receipts and macroeconomic performance is expected to be modest.
“This is essentially a question of materiality. The products affected account for only a small proportion of Nigeria’s total exports, while the dominant export category to the US remains outside the scope of the tariffs,” he said.
Nevertheless, he said the development reflects a broader structural shift in global trade policy.
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“It reinforces the trend towards greater protectionism, industrial policy and strategic use of trade instruments to advance domestic economic objectives.
“This evolving environment calls for a stronger emphasis on export diversification, enhanced manufacturing competitiveness, increased domestic value addition and deeper regional integration under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA),” he stated.
The CPPE said Nigeria should also sustain efforts to strengthen labour standards, improve supply chain transparency and engage proactively with the United States through diplomatic and trade channels to seek clarity on the implementation of the new measures and minimise any adverse effects on affected exporters.
Overall, the think tank said while the new US tariffs have generated understandable concern, their direct economic implications for Nigeria should not be overstated.
“The greater challenge lies not in the immediate loss of export opportunities, but in navigating an increasingly fragmented and protectionist global trading environment,” he said.
